To answer the question, our economy is gradually progressing and recovering from the pandemic and Russian invasion. Supply chains have returned to pre-pandemic levels, energy and food prices have come down which allows global inflation to ease faster than expected. Peculiarly, goods inflation has been extraordinarily high and the identifiable factors behind them are primarily pandemic-related. The increase in vaccination rates and decrease in health risks rebalanced spending patterns, which lead to a decrease in the demand for goods. But more specifically, the Congressional Budget Office predicts that the economic output is projected to stop growing early 2023 in response to last year’s sharp interest rates. And inflation was higher in 2021 and 2022 than in any other of the previous four decades, but that was mainly because of the pandemic and the invasion. CBO has increased its projection of short and long term interest rates over the next five years, mostly because of its near-term projections of inflation since May. There are a couple of things to worry about in an economy: employment rates, demand and wages. Luckily, projections show that despite wages, there is low unemployment, high demand for workers and increase in employment from month to month. The economy is recovering short-term, but according to Boston University, there needs to be a tie between China’s economy and America’s economy. Diplomacy between the U.S. and China needs to be encouraged to ensure long-term economic prosperity. So it seems that as long as our world stays divided, our economies will continue to struggle. While there may be a light at the end of the road, there will be a recession as long as there are living conflicts between countries that rely on foreign economies. When you look at the problem logically, if the economy struggled during the Russian invasion and the conflict affected foreign economies, then multiple economies would definitely struggle during a war. No one can predict the global conflicts that happen throughout our lifetime, but in the short term, the global economy will heal.
